Pawlenty is in in for Republican race!

The Republicans continue to provide the excitement to the Presidential race as their candidates start to emerge. They will now battle it out to decide who will take on President Obama.

And my outside bet continues to be Tim Pawlenty, who has just announced his candidacy.

Pawlenty has a good narrative, as someone from a traditional democrat state and humble beginnings, but who eventually became governor of Minnesota. He served two terms. An enduring message has been that this task ‘will not be easy’. He has warned against other candidates that are offering easy solutions to the problems facing the US.

So he has a pragmatism that comes from holding office, but he also has a good record in attracting ‘independents’ which will be attractive to party strategists.

And he is not too far away from the social and fiscal conservatives. He has lauded the Tea Party, and done the rounds of the conservative conferences. Pawlenty is not their favourite but they do not oppose him.

However, he continues to be an outsider. Mitt Romney and John Huntsman are the front-runners.  

The media has picked them as the two contenders, with the ‘fun’ expected to be delivered by some from the more conservative reaches – say Bachmann or Palin.

But let’s not discount Pawlenty. There are certainly concerns about Romney and Huntsman. One introduced health reforms that look suspiciously like Obama’s. Whilst the other has worked for Obama, as an ambassador.

And the entry of a more conservative candidate may pull the other candidates to the right as they seek to appeal to Republican voters. That in turn may result in some collateral damage, as miss-steps are made on the campaign trail. There is a careful balance to be struck in appealing to Republicans in a Primary election but not alienating the wider electorate.

It may be that Pawlenty is the last one standing, and not disliked by anyone……I am not wagering my house on him winning the election.  But it is interesting to see how often it is  someone coming through the middle who wins.

He needs to be successful in Iowa, and that will be a pointer to whether he has a chance.